Víkingur II 3–2 B68 II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Víkingur II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

B68 II

8/12/2023

1. Deild · Round 18Uppi á Brekku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Víkingur II75%

×Draw14%

B68 II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Víkingur IIExpected goals in this matchB68 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.01

Víkingur II

2.87

B68 II

1.01

Víkingur II creates 184% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 13 away

2.51

creates per match

0.62

1.41

allows per match

3.23

creates per match

Víkingur II

2.51

B68 II

0.62

allows per match

Víkingur II

1.41

B68 II

3.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Víkingur II+0.00on par

B68 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Víkingur II ↓

B68 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Víkingur II or draw

89%

Víkingur II or B68 II

86%

Draw or B68 II

25%

Winning margin

Víkingur II wins by 2+

54%

B68 II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Víkingur II 1+ goals

94%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

77%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

53%

B68 II 1+ goals

64%

B68 II 2+ goals

27%

B68 II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

88%

B68 II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Víkingur II at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

B68 II away — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Víkingur II attack 2.51 + B68 II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.87

B68 II attack 0.62 + Víkingur II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Víkingur II scores more

75%

level

14%

B68 II scores more

11%

Víkingur II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff