B68 II 1–2 Víkingur II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

B68 II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Víkingur II

5/13/2023

1. Deild · Round 9Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II18%

×Draw18%

Víkingur II64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B68 IIExpected goals in this matchVíkingur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

2.63

B68 II

1.37

Víkingur II

2.63

Víkingur II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 102 away

1.29

creates per match

2.40

2.86

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

B68 II

1.29

Víkingur II

2.40

allows per match

B68 II

2.86

Víkingur II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par

Víkingur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

Víkingur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

B68 II or draw

36%

B68 II or Víkingur II

82%

Draw or Víkingur II

82%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+

8%

Víkingur II wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals

75%

B68 II 2+ goals

40%

B68 II 3+ goals

16%

Víkingur II 1+ goals

93%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

73%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)

22%

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Víkingur II away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.45 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + Víkingur II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Víkingur II attack 2.40 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

B68 II scores more

18%

level

18%

Víkingur II scores more

64%

Víkingur II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff