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Víkingur II vs B68 — 1. Deild 2019

Víkingur II
Víkingur II
FT
3 – 1
B68
B68
5/25/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 11Uppi á Brekku (Leirvík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Víkingur II48%
×Draw22%
B6830%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Víkingur II
2.00
B68
1.55

Víkingur II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

creates per match

Víkingur II
2.52
B68
1.65

allows per match

Víkingur II
1.45
B68
1.48

finishing

Víkingur II+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Víkingur II ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Víkingur II or draw
70%
Víkingur II or B68
78%
Draw or B68
52%

Winning margin

Víkingur II wins by 2+
27%
B68 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Víkingur II 1+ goals
86%
Víkingur II 2+ goals
59%
Víkingur II 3+ goals
32%
B68 1+ goals
79%
B68 2+ goals
46%
B68 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Víkingur II (draw refunded)
61%
B68 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Víkingur II at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

B68 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Víkingur II attack 2.52 + B68 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.00

B68 attack 1.65 + Víkingur II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Víkingur II scores more
48%
level
22%
B68 scores more
30%

Víkingur II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Víkingur II 3–1 B68

Víkingur II beat B68 3-1 in 1. Deild on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Uppi á Brekku (Leirvík).