B68 2–2 Víkingur II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

B68

FT

2 – 2

Víkingur II

5/4/2019

1. Deild · Round 8Gundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

B6836%

×Draw22%

Víkingur II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B68Expected goals in this matchVíkingur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.83

B68

1.71

Víkingur II

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 96 away

2.00

creates per match

2.35

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

B68

2.00

Víkingur II

2.35

allows per match

B68

1.30

Víkingur II

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B68+0.00on par

Víkingur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

Víkingur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

B68 or draw

59%

B68 or Víkingur II

78%

Draw or Víkingur II

64%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+

18%

Víkingur II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals

82%

B68 2+ goals

51%

B68 3+ goals

24%

Víkingur II 1+ goals

84%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

54%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)

47%

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Víkingur II away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 2.00 + Víkingur II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Víkingur II attack 2.35 + B68 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

B68 scores more

36%

level

22%

Víkingur II scores more

41%

Víkingur II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff