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Vikingur Gota vs Linfield — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Vikingur Gota
Vikingur Gota
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Linfield
Linfield
8/7/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundTórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vikingur Gota46%
×Draw27%
Linfield27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Gota
1.37
Linfield
0.99

Vikingur Gota creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vikingur Gota
1.14
Linfield
0.70

allows per match

Vikingur Gota
1.29
Linfield
1.60

finishing

Vikingur Gota+0.00on par
Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Gota ↓

Linfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vikingur Gota or draw
73%
Vikingur Gota or Linfield
73%
Draw or Linfield
54%

Winning margin

Vikingur Gota wins by 2+
22%
Linfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vikingur Gota 1+ goals
75%
Vikingur Gota 2+ goals
40%
Vikingur Gota 3+ goals
16%
Linfield 1+ goals
63%
Linfield 2+ goals
26%
Linfield 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)
63%
Linfield (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Gota at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Linfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Gota attack 1.14 + Linfield defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Linfield attack 0.70 + Vikingur Gota defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vikingur Gota scores more
46%
level
27%
Linfield scores more
27%

Vikingur Gota at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vikingur Gota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vikingur Gota vs Linfield

Vikingur Gota beat Linfield 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 7, 2025.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Torshavn.