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Linfield vs Vikingur Gota — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Linfield
Linfield
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vikingur Gota
Vikingur Gota
8/14/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Linfield58%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Gota21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
2.13
Vikingur Gota
1.21

Linfield creates 76% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Linfield
2.11
Vikingur Gota
0.86

allows per match

Linfield
1.56
Vikingur Gota
2.14

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Vikingur Gota+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Vikingur Gota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
79%
Linfield or Vikingur Gota
79%
Draw or Vikingur Gota
42%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
36%
Vikingur Gota wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
88%
Linfield 2+ goals
63%
Linfield 3+ goals
35%
Vikingur Gota 1+ goals
70%
Vikingur Gota 2+ goals
34%
Vikingur Gota 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
73%
Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Vikingur Gota away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 2.11 + Vikingur Gota defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Vikingur Gota attack 0.86 + Linfield defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Linfield scores more
58%
level
21%
Vikingur Gota scores more
21%

Linfield at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Linfield 2–0 Vikingur Gota

Linfield beat Vikingur Gota 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 14, 2025.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.