Viking 4–4 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

4 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tromso

H. J. Haugen 90'

M. Roseth 90'

E. Austbo 57'

H. Heggheim 53'

V. Erlien 90', 49', 10'

J. Hjerto-Dahl 55'

4/27/2025

Eliteserien · Round 4Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Viking52%

×Draw22%

Tromso25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.26

Viking

1.91

Tromso

1.26

Viking creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

2.21

creates per match

1.39

1.14

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Viking

2.21

Tromso

1.39

allows per match

Viking

1.14

Tromso

1.61

+0.84scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Viking+0.84scores more

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Viking or draw

75%

Viking or Tromso

78%

Draw or Tromso

48%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

30%

Tromso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

85%

Viking 2+ goals

57%

Viking 3+ goals

30%

Tromso 1+ goals

72%

Tromso 2+ goals

36%

Tromso 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

68%

Tromso (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.61 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.21 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Tromso attack 1.39 + Viking defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viking scores more

52%

level

22%

Tromso scores more

25%

Viking at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripic

Viking · M

9.3

Match Events

10'

V. Erlien↳ J. Romsaas

19'

Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal

32'

Jakob Segadal Hansen

43'

Joe Bell

45+1'

Jakob Haugaard

49'

Vegard ErlienGoal confirmed

49'

V. Erlien↳ R. Jenssen

53'

H. Heggheim↳ Z. Tripic

55'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ L. Cornic

57'

E. Austbo↳ H. Heggheim

66'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

66'

D. Braut← J. Romsaas

69'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← S. Svendsen

72'

D. Edvardsson← K. Antonsen

76'

C. Cappis← E. Austbo

76'

H. Mikaelsson← J. Hansen

79'

S. Prestmo← J. Hjerto-Dahl

79'

R. Kristiansen← A. Jenssen

82'

Yaw Paintsil

86'

Leo Cornic

88'

H. J. Haugen← H. Heggheim

88'

V. Vevatne← A. Baertelsen

90'

H. J. Haugen↳ V. Vevatne

90'

M. Roseth↳ Z. Tripic

90'

V. Erlien↳ T. Guddal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingTromso

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots10

2.45Expected Goals (xG)2.22

11Corners2

4Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots10

8On Target6

10Off Target3

4Blocked1

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

556Total Passes372

462Accurate Passes278

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Viking 4–4 Tromso

Viking and Tromso drew 4-4 in Eliteserien on April 27, 2025.

Goals: V. Erlien (10', 49', 90'), H. Heggheim (53'), J. Hjerto-Dahl (55'), E. Austbo (57'), H. J. Haugen (90'), M. Roseth (90').

Viking controlled possession (61%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Viking 4–4 Tromso