Tromso 1–3 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Viking

J. Hjerto-Dahl 12'

N. D'Agostino 87' (pen)

S. Bjorshol 64'

P. Christiansen 15' (pen)

10/19/2025

Eliteserien · Round 25Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Tromso35%

×Draw25%

Viking40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.46

Tromso

1.34

Viking

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.62

creates per match

1.77

1.16

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Tromso

1.62

Viking

1.77

allows per match

Tromso

1.16

Viking

1.06

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Tromso+0.01on par

Viking+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

60%

Tromso or Viking

75%

Draw or Viking

65%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

74%

Tromso 2+ goals

39%

Tromso 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

77%

Viking 2+ goals

43%

Viking 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

46%

Viking (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

Viking away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.62 + Viking defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Viking attack 1.77 + Tromso defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tromso scores more

35%

level

25%

Viking scores more

40%

Viking at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Christiansen

Viking · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

J. Hjerto-Dahl

15'

P. ChristiansenPenalty

35'

Abubacarr Kinteh

52'

Martin Owe Roseth

57'

E. Austbo← S. Svendsen

57'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← J. Hansen

64'

S. Bjorshol↳ E. Austbo

72'

A. Jenssen← A. S. Kinteh

72'

A. Mikkelsen← V. Erlien

72'

R. Kristiansen← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

77'

N. D'Agostino← H. J. Haugen

81'

L. O. Larsen← D. Edvardsson

81'

D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes

84'

H. Heggheim← S. Bjorshol

87'

N. D'AgostinoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoViking

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots10

1.25Expected Goals (xG)2.48

1Corners3

19Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

563Total Passes311

472Accurate Passes234

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–3 Viking

Viking beat Tromso 3-1 in Eliteserien on October 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Hjerto-Dahl (12'), P. Christiansen (15' pen), S. Bjorshol (64'), N. D'Agostino (87' pen).

Tromso controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.

Tromso vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–3 Viking