Viking 1–4 Lillestrom: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Lillestrom

Z. Tripić 68' (pen)

E. Knudtzon 90+1'

E. Kitolano 38'

G. Åsen 8'

T. Lehne Olsen 5' (pen)

5/16/2024

Eliteserien · Round 8SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Viking47%

×Draw22%

Lillestrom31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.52

Viking

1.90

Lillestrom

1.52

Viking creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.98

creates per match

1.76

1.28

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Viking

1.98

Lillestrom

1.76

allows per match

Viking

1.28

Lillestrom

1.81

+1.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+1.12scores more

Lillestrom-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Viking or draw

69%

Viking or Lillestrom

78%

Draw or Lillestrom

53%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

26%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

85%

Viking 2+ goals

56%

Viking 3+ goals

29%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

78%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

45%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

60%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.81 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.98 + Lillestrom defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lillestrom attack 1.76 + Viking defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Viking scores more

47%

level

22%

Lillestrom scores more

31%

Viking at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

T. Lehne OlsenPenalty

8'

G. Åsen↳ M. Lundemo

38'

E. Kitolano↳ K. Tønnessen

43'

Marius Lundemo

45'

Espen Bjørnsen Garnås

46'

J. Urbančič← V. Vevatne

46'

N. D'Agostino← L. Salvesen

65'

E. Knudtzon← T. Lehne Olsen

65'

S. Foss← E. Kitolano

68'

Z. TripićPenalty

73'

S. Bjørshol← H. Haugen

79'

H. Tangen← S. Kvia-Egeskog

79'

F. Elkær← U. Charles

88'

D. Diop← G. Stensness

90+7'

Lucky Efe

90+4'

A. Karlin← M. Lundemo

90+4'

E. Lucky← G. Åsen

90+1'

E. Knudtzon↳ F. Elkær

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingLillestrom

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots12

2.47Expected Goals (xG)2.90

9Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots12

3On Target7

7Off Target4

8Blocked1

11Inside Box10

7Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

451Total Passes329

367Accurate Passes260

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

7Offsides4

Match Recap: Viking vs Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Viking 4-1 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2024.

Goals: T. Lehne Olsen (5' pen), G. Åsen (8'), E. Kitolano (38'), Z. Tripić (68' pen), E. Knudtzon (90+1').

Viking controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs Lillestrom