Lillestrom 1–4 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Viking

Vá 68'

P. Christiansen 66', 45+1'

S. Svendsen 59'

H. Heggheim 46'

9/29/2024

Eliteserien · Round 24Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lillestrom30%

×Draw24%

Viking46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.71

Lillestrom

1.35

Viking

1.71

Viking creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.62

creates per match

2.07

1.34

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.62

Viking

2.07

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.34

Viking

1.09

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.18scores less

Viking+0.51scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

54%

Lillestrom or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

70%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

13%

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

74%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

39%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

51%

Viking 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

40%

Viking (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Viking away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.09 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.62 + Viking defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Viking attack 2.07 + Lillestrom defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lillestrom scores more

30%

level

24%

Viking scores more

46%

Viking at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Christiansen

Viking · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

Thomas Lehne OlsenGoal cancelled

40'

Espen Bjørnsen Garnås

45+1'

P. Christiansen↳ Z. Tripić

46'

H. Heggheim↳ V. Vevatne

48'

Viljar Helland VevatneGoal confirmed

51'

Joe Bell

59'

S. Svendsen↳ S. Kvia-Egeskog

63'

Ylldren Ibrahimaj

64'

S. Foss← M. Roseth

64'

H. Finndell← Y. de Lanlay

65'

M. Karlsbakk← Y. Ibrahimaj

66'

P. Christiansen↳ V. Vevatne

68'

Vá

75'

V. Hoff← M. Lundemo

75'

F. Elkær← Mohanad Jeahze

81'

N. Fuglestad← S. Svendsen

83'

Hampus Finndell

83'

M. Diop← U. Charles

86'

H. Haugen← S. Kvia-Egeskog

86'

C. Cappis← P. Christiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromViking

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots12

0.97Expected Goals (xG)2.38

3Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target6

4Off Target3

0Blocked3

6Inside Box10

0Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

516Total Passes506

417Accurate Passes401

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 1–4 Viking

Viking beat Lillestrom 4-1 in Eliteserien on September 29, 2024.

Goals: P. Christiansen (45+1', 66'), H. Heggheim (46'), S. Svendsen (59'), Vá (68').

Lillestrom controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 1–4 Viking