Viking 3–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ham-Kam

S. Auklend 77', 15'

S. Kvia-Egeskog 45+3'

5/26/2024

Eliteserien · Round 10SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Viking46%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.33

Viking

1.71

Ham-Kam

1.33

Viking creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.39

1.27

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Viking

1.75

Ham-Kam

1.39

allows per match

Viking

1.27

Ham-Kam

1.68

+1.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+1.25scores more

Ham-Kam-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw

70%

Viking or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

54%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

25%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

82%

Viking 2+ goals

51%

Viking 3+ goals

24%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

74%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

38%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

61%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.68 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.75 + Ham-Kam defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ham-Kam attack 1.39 + Viking defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viking scores more

46%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

30%

Viking at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Auklend

Viking · M

9.3

Match Events

8'

Nicholas D'Agostino

15'

S. Auklend↳ Z. Tripić

45+3'

S. Kvia-Egeskog↳ J. Bell

59'

D. Diop← S. Langås

61'

A. Ødegård← W. Kurtović

61'

B. Bjarnason← J. Norheim

69'

O. Kjærgaard← K. Onsrud

70'

P. Kirkevold← H. Udahl

74'

S. Svendsen← N. DAgostino

74'

H. Tangen← S. Kvia-Egeskog

74'

S. Bjørshol← H. Haugen

77'

S. Auklend↳ Z. Tripić

79'

P. Christiansen← Z. Tripić

82'

M. Mawa← F. Sjølstad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingHam-Kam

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots13

1.21Expected Goals (xG)1.07

8Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots13

8On Target4

6Off Target3

4Blocked6

9Inside Box13

9Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

695Total Passes298

604Accurate Passes204

87%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Viking 3 – 0 Ham-Kam

Viking beat Ham-Kam 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 26, 2024.

Goals: S. Auklend (15', 77'), S. Kvia-Egeskog (45+3').

Viking controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Viking 3 – 0 Ham-Kam