Ham-Kam 2–5 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Viking

J. Gonstad 90' (pen)

H. Falchener 68' (OG)

P. Christiansen 53'

H. Falchener 37', 2'

Z. Tripic 13' (pen)

S. Svendsen 4'

4/21/2025

Eliteserien · Round 3Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ham-Kam27%

×Draw22%

Viking51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.94

Ham-Kam

1.35

Viking

1.94

Viking creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.90

1.98

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.57

Viking

1.90

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.98

Viking

1.13

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.65scores more

Viking+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

49%

Ham-Kam or Viking

78%

Draw or Viking

73%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

11%

Viking wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

74%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

39%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

86%

Viking 2+ goals

58%

Viking 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

34%

Viking (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 9 matches

Viking away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.57 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Viking attack 1.90 + Ham-Kam defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

27%

level

22%

Viking scores more

51%

Viking at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripic

Viking · M

9.6

Match Events

2'

H. Falchener↳ J. Bell

4'

S. Svendsen↳ Z. Tripic

13'

Z. TripicPenalty

37'

H. Falchener↳ Z. Tripic

46'

W. Osnes-Ringen← A. Roaldsoy

46'

A. Potur← G. Simenstad

53'

P. Christiansen

61'

A. Ekeroth← S. Nilsen

61'

J. Gonstad← K. Lien

63'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← S. Svendsen

63'

H. Mikaelsson← P. Christiansen

63'

N. Fuglestad← E. Austbo

68'

H. FalchenerOwn goal

75'

S. Bjorshol← A. Baertelsen

75'

C. Cappis← Z. Tripic

76'

Tore Andre Soras

82'

M. Johnsgard← F. Sjolstad

90+4'

Markus JohnsgardPenalty confirmed

90'

J. GonstadPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamViking

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots24

1.26Expected Goals (xG)3.67

4Corners12

8Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots24

2On Target12

2Off Target8

4Blocked4

8Inside Box17

0Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

304Total Passes527

201Accurate Passes437

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

Ham-Kam 2 – 5 Viking

Viking beat Ham-Kam 5-2 in Eliteserien on April 21, 2025.

Goals: H. Falchener (2', 37', 68' o.g.), S. Svendsen (4'), Z. Tripic (13' pen), P. Christiansen (53'), J. Gonstad (90' pen).

Viking controlled possession (63%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Viking — Eliteserien 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-Kam 2 – 5 Viking