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Viking vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

Viking
Viking
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Floro
Floro
6/20/20181. Division1. Division · Round 11SR-Bank Arena (Stavanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viking66%
×Draw19%
Floro15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
2.20
Floro
0.93

Viking creates 137% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Viking
2.33
Floro
0.73

allows per match

Viking
1.13
Floro
2.07

finishing

Viking+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viking or draw
85%
Viking or Floro
81%
Draw or Floro
34%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
42%
Floro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
89%
Viking 2+ goals
64%
Viking 3+ goals
37%
Floro 1+ goals
61%
Floro 2+ goals
24%
Floro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
82%
Floro (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.33 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Floro attack 0.73 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Viking scores more
66%
level
19%
Floro scores more
15%

Viking at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking vs Floro

Viking beat Floro 2-1 in 1. Division on June 20, 2018.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena (Stavanger).