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Floro vs Viking — 1. Division 2018

Floro
Floro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Viking
Viking
9/30/20181. Division1. Division · Round 25Florø stadion (Florø)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Floro27%
×Draw22%
Viking51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.44
Viking
2.04

Viking creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Floro
1.07
Viking
2.20

allows per match

Floro
1.87
Viking
1.80

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Viking+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Viking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Floro or draw
49%
Floro or Viking
78%
Draw or Viking
73%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
12%
Viking wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
76%
Floro 2+ goals
42%
Floro 3+ goals
18%
Viking 1+ goals
87%
Viking 2+ goals
60%
Viking 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
35%
Viking (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Viking away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 1.07 + Viking defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Viking attack 2.20 + Floro defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Floro scores more
27%
level
22%
Viking scores more
51%

Viking at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floro vs Viking

Floro beat Viking 3-2 in 1. Division on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Florø stadion (Florø).