Viking 3–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aalesund

Z. Tripić 90+4', 70' (pen)

D. Brekalo 23'

E. Segberg 40'

7/24/2023

Eliteserien · Round 15SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Viking57%

×Draw21%

Aalesund22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.23

Viking

2.10

Aalesund

1.23

Viking creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Viking

1.75

Aalesund

1.20

allows per match

Viking

1.27

Aalesund

2.45

+1.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+1.25scores more

Aalesund-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viking or draw

78%

Viking or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

43%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

35%

Aalesund wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

88%

Viking 2+ goals

62%

Viking 3+ goals

35%

Aalesund 1+ goals

71%

Aalesund 2+ goals

35%

Aalesund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

72%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.45 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.75 + Aalesund defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalesund attack 1.20 + Viking defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Viking scores more

57%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

22%

Viking at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · F

9.7

Match Events

23'

D. Brekalo↳ Z. Tripić

28'

Isaac Atanga

40'

E. Segberg

55'

N. D'Agostino← S. Svendsen

68'

Markus Karlsbakk

70'

Z. TripićPenalty

71'

K. Løkberg← H. Tangen

71'

B. Bjarnason← P. Yazbek

71'

N. Sandberg← L. Salvesen

73'

K. Ødemarksbakken← I. Atanga

82'

Moctar Diop

83'

H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol

85'

Kristoffer Løkberg

90+4'

Z. Tripić↳ N. Sandberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingAalesund

Overview

57%Possession43%

28Total Shots19

3.11Expected Goals (xG)1.98

11Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots19

8On Target6

13Off Target7

7Blocked6

17Inside Box16

11Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

431Total Passes325

373Accurate Passes255

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Viking vs Aalesund

Viking beat Aalesund 3-1 in Eliteserien on July 24, 2023.

Goals: D. Brekalo (23'), E. Segberg (40'), Z. Tripić (70' pen, 90+4').

Viking controlled possession (57%) and registered 28 shots to 19.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs Aalesund