Aalesund 2–1 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Aalesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viking

P. Golubović 73'

S. Rafn 62'

Z. Tripić 57' (pen)

10/2/2022

Eliteserien · Round 24Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aalesund29%

×Draw23%

Viking48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.82

Aalesund

1.35

Viking

1.82

Viking creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.90

1.74

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Aalesund

1.57

Viking

1.90

allows per match

Aalesund

1.74

Viking

1.13

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.40scores less

Viking+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

52%

Aalesund or Viking

77%

Draw or Viking

71%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

12%

Viking wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

74%

Aalesund 2+ goals

39%

Aalesund 3+ goals

15%

Viking 1+ goals

84%

Viking 2+ goals

54%

Viking 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

37%

Viking (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

Viking away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.57 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Viking attack 1.90 + Aalesund defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aalesund scores more

29%

level

23%

Viking scores more

48%

Viking at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · F

8.3

Match Events

28'

Petar Golubović

54'

Yann-Erik de Lanlay

57'

Z. TripićPenalty

59'

D. Karlsbakk← N. Sandberg

62'

S. Rafn

67'

H. Tangen← M. Solbakken

70'

G. Koomson← E. Moses

70'

F. Haugen← D. Čanađija

73'

P. Golubović

76'

G. Stensness← D. Diop

76'

K. Kabran← S. Svendsen

77'

F. Torsteinbø← K. Løkberg

89'

K. Ødemarksbakken← S. Nordli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundViking

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots11

3Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target5

7Off Target1

2Blocked5

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

399Total Passes464

310Accurate Passes365

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Aalesund 2–1 Viking

Aalesund beat Viking 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 2, 2022.

Goals: Z. Tripić (57' pen), S. Rafn (62'), P. Golubović (73').

Viking controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Aalesund 2–1 Viking