Viking U19 3–2 Haugesund U19: Result & Stats

Viking U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Haugesund U19

4/25/2025

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 6Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Viking U1957%

×Draw18%

Haugesund U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking U19Expected goals in this matchHaugesund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.73

Viking U19

2.67

Haugesund U19

1.73

Viking U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

2.85

creates per match

1.91

1.55

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Viking U19

2.85

Haugesund U19

1.91

allows per match

Viking U19

1.55

Haugesund U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking U19+0.00on par

Haugesund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking U19 ↓

Haugesund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Viking U19 or draw

76%

Viking U19 or Haugesund U19

82%

Draw or Haugesund U19

43%

Winning margin

Viking U19 wins by 2+

37%

Haugesund U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Viking U19 1+ goals

93%

Viking U19 2+ goals

74%

Viking U19 3+ goals

49%

Haugesund U19 1+ goals

82%

Haugesund U19 2+ goals

52%

Haugesund U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Viking U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking U19 at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Haugesund U19 away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking U19 attack 2.85 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.67

Haugesund U19 attack 1.91 + Viking U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Viking U19 scores more

57%

level

18%

Haugesund U19 scores more

24%

Viking U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Viking U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff