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Haugesund U19 vs Viking U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Haugesund U19
Haugesund U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Viking U19
Viking U19
1/24/2025Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Haugesund U1942%
×Draw19%
Viking U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund U19
2.62
Viking U19
2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Haugesund U19
2.90
Viking U19
2.90

allows per match

Haugesund U19
2.19
Viking U19
2.33

finishing

Haugesund U19+0.00on par
Viking U19+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund U19 ↓

Viking U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Haugesund U19 or draw
61%
Haugesund U19 or Viking U19
81%
Draw or Viking U19
58%

Winning margin

Haugesund U19 wins by 2+
25%
Viking U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Haugesund U19 1+ goals
93%
Haugesund U19 2+ goals
73%
Haugesund U19 3+ goals
48%
Viking U19 1+ goals
92%
Viking U19 2+ goals
72%
Viking U19 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Viking U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

Viking U19 away — creates 2.90, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund U19 attack 2.90 + Viking U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.62

Viking U19 attack 2.90 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haugesund U19 scores more
42%
level
19%
Viking U19 scores more
39%

Haugesund U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Haugesund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haugesund U19 vs Viking U19

Haugesund U19 beat Viking U19 3-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy in Veavågen.