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Viking II vs Lysekloster — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Viking II
Viking II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lysekloster
Lysekloster
J. Fiksdal 75'
5/29/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 8SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viking II44%
×Draw20%
Lysekloster36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking II
2.23
Lysekloster
2.02

Viking II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viking II
3.00
Lysekloster
2.77

allows per match

Viking II
1.28
Lysekloster
1.46

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par
Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 77No: 2377%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Lysekloster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Viking II or draw
64%
Viking II or Lysekloster
80%
Draw or Lysekloster
56%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+
25%
Lysekloster wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals
89%
Viking II 2+ goals
65%
Viking II 3+ goals
38%
Lysekloster 1+ goals
87%
Lysekloster 2+ goals
60%
Lysekloster 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)
55%
Lysekloster (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Lysekloster defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Lysekloster attack 2.77 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Viking II scores more
44%
level
20%
Lysekloster scores more
36%

Viking II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
J. Fiksdal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking II vs Lysekloster

Viking II beat Lysekloster 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 29, 2022.

Goals: J. Fiksdal (75').

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.