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Viking II vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Viking II
Viking II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Frøya
Frøya
9/16/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 20SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viking II59%
×Draw20%
Frøya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking II
2.31
Frøya
1.33

Viking II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viking II
3.00
Frøya
1.38

allows per match

Viking II
1.28
Frøya
1.62

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viking II or draw
79%
Viking II or Frøya
80%
Draw or Frøya
41%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+
37%
Frøya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals
90%
Viking II 2+ goals
67%
Viking II 3+ goals
40%
Frøya 1+ goals
74%
Frøya 2+ goals
38%
Frøya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)
73%
Frøya (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Frøya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Frøya attack 1.38 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Viking II scores more
59%
level
20%
Frøya scores more
21%

Viking II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking II vs Frøya

Viking II beat Frøya 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.