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Frøya vs Viking II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Frøya
Frøya
FT
0 – 1
Viking II
Viking II
5/6/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 5Frøya idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frøya36%
×Draw24%
Viking II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frøya
1.51
Viking II
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Frøya
1.23
Viking II
2.06

allows per match

Frøya
1.15
Viking II
1.79

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par
Viking II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Viking II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Frøya or draw
60%
Frøya or Viking II
76%
Draw or Viking II
64%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+
17%
Viking II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals
78%
Frøya 2+ goals
44%
Frøya 3+ goals
19%
Viking II 1+ goals
80%
Viking II 2+ goals
47%
Viking II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)
47%
Viking II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Viking II away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.23 + Viking II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Viking II attack 2.06 + Frøya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Frøya scores more
36%
level
24%
Viking II scores more
40%

Viking II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frøya vs Viking II

Viking II beat Frøya 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Frøya idrettspark in Bergen.