Viking II 7–1 Eiger: Result & Stats

Viking II

FT

7 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eiger

10/16/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 24SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viking II76%

×Draw13%

Eiger11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking IIExpected goals in this matchEiger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

1.21

Viking II

3.27

Eiger

1.21

Viking II creates 170% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.15

1.28

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Viking II

3.00

Eiger

1.15

allows per match

Viking II

1.28

Eiger

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par

Eiger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Eiger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Viking II or draw

89%

Viking II or Eiger

87%

Draw or Eiger

24%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+

57%

Eiger wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals

96%

Viking II 2+ goals

83%

Viking II 3+ goals

62%

Eiger 1+ goals

70%

Eiger 2+ goals

34%

Eiger 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)

88%

Eiger (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Eiger away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Eiger defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.27

Eiger attack 1.15 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Viking II scores more

76%

level

13%

Eiger scores more

11%

Viking II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff