Eiger 0–2 Viking II: Result & Stats

Eiger

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Viking II

7/3/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Bøgh Hafsø banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eiger38%

×Draw23%

Viking II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EigerExpected goals in this matchViking II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.69

Eiger

1.67

Viking II

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

1.54

creates per match

2.06

1.31

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Eiger

1.54

Viking II

2.06

allows per match

Eiger

1.31

Viking II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eiger+0.00on par

Viking II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eiger ↓

Viking II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Eiger or draw

61%

Eiger or Viking II

77%

Draw or Viking II

62%

Winning margin

Eiger wins by 2+

19%

Viking II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eiger 1+ goals

81%

Eiger 2+ goals

50%

Eiger 3+ goals

23%

Viking II 1+ goals

82%

Viking II 2+ goals

50%

Viking II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eiger (draw refunded)

49%

Viking II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eiger at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Viking II away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eiger attack 1.54 + Viking II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Viking II attack 2.06 + Eiger defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eiger scores more

38%

level

23%

Viking II scores more

39%

Viking II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff