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Viking FK W vs TIL 2020 W — 1. Division Women 2022

Viking FK W
Viking FK W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TIL 2020 W
TIL 2020 W
9/28/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 18Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Viking FK W31%
×Draw23%
TIL 2020 W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking FK W
1.44
TIL 2020 W
1.79

TIL 2020 W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 49 away

creates per match

Viking FK W
1.46
TIL 2020 W
1.61

allows per match

Viking FK W
1.96
TIL 2020 W
1.43

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par
TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

TIL 2020 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw
54%
Viking FK W or TIL 2020 W
77%
Draw or TIL 2020 W
69%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+
14%
TIL 2020 W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals
76%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
42%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
18%
TIL 2020 W 1+ goals
83%
TIL 2020 W 2+ goals
53%
TIL 2020 W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)
40%
TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

TIL 2020 W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

TIL 2020 W attack 1.61 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viking FK W scores more
31%
level
23%
TIL 2020 W scores more
46%

TIL 2020 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TIL 2020 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking FK W vs TIL 2020 W

TIL 2020 W beat Viking FK W 2-1 in 1. Division Women on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.