TIL 2020 W 1–1 Viking FK W: Result & Stats

TIL 2020 W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Viking FK W

4/26/2025

1. Division Women · Round 5Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TIL 2020 W42%

×Draw24%

Viking FK W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TIL 2020 WExpected goals in this matchViking FK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.41

TIL 2020 W

1.61

Viking FK W

1.41

TIL 2020 W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

1.90

creates per match

1.71

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

TIL 2020 W

1.90

Viking FK W

1.71

allows per match

TIL 2020 W

1.10

Viking FK W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 W ↓

Viking FK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TIL 2020 W or draw

66%

TIL 2020 W or Viking FK W

76%

Draw or Viking FK W

58%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 W wins by 2+

21%

Viking FK W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

TIL 2020 W 1+ goals

80%

TIL 2020 W 2+ goals

48%

TIL 2020 W 3+ goals

22%

Viking FK W 1+ goals

76%

Viking FK W 2+ goals

41%

Viking FK W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)

56%

Viking FK W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 W attack 1.90 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.61

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TIL 2020 W scores more

42%

level

24%

Viking FK W scores more

34%

TIL 2020 W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TIL 2020 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff