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Viking FK W vs HamKam W — 1. Division Women 2022

Viking FK W
Viking FK W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam W
HamKam W
10/4/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 20Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Viking FK W52%
×Draw23%
HamKam W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking FK W
1.86
HamKam W
1.25

Viking FK W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Viking FK W
1.46
HamKam W
0.55

allows per match

Viking FK W
1.96
HamKam W
2.27

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par
HamKam W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

HamKam W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw
74%
Viking FK W or HamKam W
77%
Draw or HamKam W
48%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+
29%
HamKam W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals
84%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
55%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
28%
HamKam W 1+ goals
71%
HamKam W 2+ goals
36%
HamKam W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)
67%
HamKam W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

HamKam W away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + HamKam W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.86

HamKam W attack 0.55 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viking FK W scores more
52%
level
23%
HamKam W scores more
26%

Viking FK W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Viking FK W 2–1 HamKam W

Viking FK W beat HamKam W 2-1 in 1. Division Women on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.