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HamKam W vs Viking FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

HamKam W
HamKam W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Viking FK W
Viking FK W
4/12/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 3Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

HamKam W20%
×Draw23%
Viking FK W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam W
0.98
Viking FK W
1.85

Viking FK W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

creates per match

HamKam W
0.64
Viking FK W
1.71

allows per match

HamKam W
2.00
Viking FK W
1.32

finishing

HamKam W+0.00on par
Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam W ↓

Viking FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

HamKam W or draw
42%
HamKam W or Viking FK W
77%
Draw or Viking FK W
80%

Winning margin

HamKam W wins by 2+
7%
Viking FK W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

HamKam W 1+ goals
62%
HamKam W 2+ goals
26%
HamKam W 3+ goals
8%
Viking FK W 1+ goals
84%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
55%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

HamKam W (draw refunded)
25%
Viking FK W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam W at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam W attack 0.64 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.98

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + HamKam W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HamKam W scores more
20%
level
23%
Viking FK W scores more
58%

Viking FK W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: HamKam W 0–2 Viking FK W

Viking FK W beat HamKam W 2-0 in 1. Division Women on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.