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Viking FK W vs Avaldsnes W — 1. Division Women 2022

Viking FK W
Viking FK W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Avaldsnes W
Avaldsnes W
6/22/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 11SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Viking FK W40%
×Draw24%
Avaldsnes W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking FK W
1.59
Avaldsnes W
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Viking FK W
1.46
Avaldsnes W
1.00

allows per match

Viking FK W
1.96
Avaldsnes W
1.73

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par
Avaldsnes W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

Avaldsnes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw
64%
Viking FK W or Avaldsnes W
76%
Draw or Avaldsnes W
60%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+
20%
Avaldsnes W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals
80%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
47%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
21%
Avaldsnes W 1+ goals
77%
Avaldsnes W 2+ goals
43%
Avaldsnes W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)
53%
Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Avaldsnes W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + Avaldsnes W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Avaldsnes W attack 1.00 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viking FK W scores more
40%
level
24%
Avaldsnes W scores more
36%

Viking FK W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking FK W vs Avaldsnes W

Avaldsnes W beat Viking FK W 2-1 in 1. Division Women on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.