Avaldsnes W 1–0 Viking FK W: Result & Stats

Avaldsnes W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viking FK W

4/13/2024

1. Division Women · Round 3Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Avaldsnes W34%

×Draw26%

Viking FK W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avaldsnes WExpected goals in this matchViking FK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.40

Avaldsnes W

1.25

Viking FK W

1.40

Viking FK W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

1.17

creates per match

1.71

1.08

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Avaldsnes W

1.17

Viking FK W

1.71

allows per match

Avaldsnes W

1.08

Viking FK W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avaldsnes W+0.00on par

Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avaldsnes W ↓

Viking FK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avaldsnes W or draw

60%

Avaldsnes W or Viking FK W

74%

Draw or Viking FK W

66%

Winning margin

Avaldsnes W wins by 2+

14%

Viking FK W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Avaldsnes W 1+ goals

71%

Avaldsnes W 2+ goals

36%

Avaldsnes W 3+ goals

13%

Viking FK W 1+ goals

75%

Viking FK W 2+ goals

41%

Viking FK W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)

45%

Viking FK W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avaldsnes W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avaldsnes W attack 1.17 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + Avaldsnes W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avaldsnes W scores more

34%

level

26%

Viking FK W scores more

40%

Viking FK W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff