Viitorul Şelimbăr 2–1 Progresul Spartac

Viitorul Şelimbăr

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Progresul Spartac

11/11/2023

Liga II · Round 13Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr52%

×Draw25%

Progresul Spartac23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ŞelimbărExpected goals in this matchProgresul Spartac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.61

Progresul Spartac

0.97

Viitorul Şelimbăr creates 66% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 25 away

1.55

creates per match

0.92

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.55

Progresul Spartac

0.92

allows per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.02

Progresul Spartac

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Şelimbăr ↓

Progresul Spartac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Viitorul Şelimbăr or draw

77%

Viitorul Şelimbăr or Progresul Spartac

75%

Draw or Progresul Spartac

48%

Winning margin

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

28%

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

80%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

48%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

22%

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals

62%

Progresul Spartac 2+ goals

25%

Progresul Spartac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

70%

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Şelimbăr at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Progresul Spartac away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 1.55 + Progresul Spartac defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

52%

level

25%

Progresul Spartac scores more

23%

Viitorul Şelimbăr at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viitorul Şelimbăr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff