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Progresul Spartac vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
8/20/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 3Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac25%
×Draw25%
Viitorul Şelimbăr50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.07
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.61

Viitorul Şelimbăr creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.96

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.23

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
50%
Progresul Spartac or Viitorul Şelimbăr
75%
Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr
75%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
9%
Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
66%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
29%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
9%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
80%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
48%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
34%
Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
25%
level
25%
Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
50%

Viitorul Şelimbăr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viitorul Şelimbăr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Progresul Spartac 1 – 2 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Viitorul Şelimbăr beat Progresul Spartac 2-1 in Liga II on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic in Buftea.