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Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
4/24/2024Liga IILiga II · Promotion Round - 6Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr43%
×Draw27%
Csikszereda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.35
Csikszereda
1.06

Viitorul Şelimbăr creates 27% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

creates per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.55
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.02
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Şelimbăr ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Viitorul Şelimbăr or draw
71%
Viitorul Şelimbăr or Csikszereda
73%
Draw or Csikszereda
57%

Winning margin

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
20%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
74%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
39%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
15%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
65%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
29%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
60%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Şelimbăr at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 1.55 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
43%
level
27%
Csikszereda scores more
29%

Viitorul Şelimbăr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viitorul Şelimbăr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Csikszereda

Viitorul Şelimbăr and Csikszereda drew 2-2 in Liga II on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.