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Csikszereda vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
4/1/2024Liga IILiga II · Promotion Round - 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Csikszereda47%
×Draw27%
Viitorul Şelimbăr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.39
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.96

Csikszereda creates 45% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 69 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.96

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.23

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
74%
Csikszereda or Viitorul Şelimbăr
73%
Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr
53%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
22%
Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
75%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
40%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
16%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
62%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
25%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
64%
Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Csikszereda scores more
47%
level
27%
Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
26%

Csikszereda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Csikszereda 2–0 Viitorul Şelimbăr

Csikszereda beat Viitorul Şelimbăr 2-0 in Liga II on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.