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Viitorul Constanta vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
8/22/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 1Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta49%
×Draw27%
Uta Arad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.46
Uta Arad
0.95

Viitorul Constanta creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.70
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.02
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
75%
Viitorul Constanta or Uta Arad
73%
Draw or Uta Arad
51%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
24%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
43%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
18%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
61%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
25%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
67%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
49%
level
27%
Uta Arad scores more
25%

Viitorul Constanta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Viitorul Constanta 1–1 Uta Arad

Viitorul Constanta and Uta Arad drew 1-1 in Liga I on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.