Uta Arad 1–0 Viitorul Constanta: Result & Stats

Uta Arad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viitorul Constanta

4/16/2021

Liga I · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Uta Arad38%

×Draw28%

Viitorul Constanta33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.09

Uta Arad

1.19

Viitorul Constanta

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

1.07

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.25

Viitorul Constanta

1.07

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.11

Viitorul Constanta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

67%

Uta Arad or Viitorul Constanta

72%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

62%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

16%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

70%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

33%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

12%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

66%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

30%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

53%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uta Arad scores more

38%

level

28%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

33%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff