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Viitorul Constanta vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
6/14/2020Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta55%
×Draw24%
Politehnica Iasi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.69
Politehnica Iasi
0.95

Viitorul Constanta creates 78% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 100 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.70
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.02
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
79%
Viitorul Constanta or Politehnica Iasi
76%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
45%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
30%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
82%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
50%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
24%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
61%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
25%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
72%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
55%
level
24%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
21%

Viitorul Constanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viitorul Constanta vs Politehnica Iasi

Viitorul Constanta beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on June 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.