Politehnica Iasi 1–1 Viitorul Constanta

Politehnica Iasi

FT

1 – 1

Viitorul Constanta

11/1/2020

Liga I · Round 9Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Politehnica Iasi34%

×Draw28%

Viitorul Constanta37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.19

Politehnica Iasi

1.13

Viitorul Constanta

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 59 away

1.11

creates per match

1.07

1.30

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

Viitorul Constanta

1.07

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

Viitorul Constanta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

63%

Politehnica Iasi or Viitorul Constanta

72%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

66%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

14%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

68%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

31%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

11%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

70%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

33%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

48%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

34%

level

28%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

37%

Viitorul Constanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff