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Viitorul Constanta vs Gent — UEFA Europa League 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gent
Gent
8/1/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viitorul Constanta47%
×Draw28%
Gent25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.35
Gent
0.89

Viitorul Constanta creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.33
Gent
0.77

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.00
Gent
1.38

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
Gent+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
75%
Viitorul Constanta or Gent
72%
Draw or Gent
53%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
23%
Gent wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
74%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
39%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
15%
Gent 1+ goals
59%
Gent 2+ goals
22%
Gent 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
66%
Gent (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gent away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.33 + Gent defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gent attack 0.77 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
47%
level
28%
Gent scores more
25%

Viitorul Constanta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viitorul Constanta vs Gent

Viitorul Constanta beat Gent 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.