Gent 6–3 Viitorul Constanta: Result & Stats

Gent

FT

6 – 3

HT: 5 – 1

Viitorul Constanta

7/25/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundGHELAMCO-arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gent51%

×Draw20%

Viitorul Constanta29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GentExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.81

Gent

2.42

Viitorul Constanta

1.81

Gent creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

1.85

creates per match

2.00

1.62

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Gent

1.85

Viitorul Constanta

2.00

allows per match

Gent

1.62

Viitorul Constanta

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gent+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Gent or draw

71%

Gent or Viitorul Constanta

80%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

49%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+

31%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals

91%

Gent 2+ goals

69%

Gent 3+ goals

43%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

84%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

54%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)

64%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.85 + Viitorul Constanta defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Viitorul Constanta attack 2.00 + Gent defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gent scores more

51%

level

20%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

29%

Gent at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff