Viitorul Constanta 1–1 FCSB: Result & Stats

Viitorul Constanta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

4/21/2019

Liga I · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Central Academia Hagi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta40%

×Draw26%

FCSB34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Viitorul Constanta

1.39

FCSB

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 155 away

1.70

creates per match

1.51

1.02

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.70

FCSB

1.51

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.02

FCSB

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw

66%

Viitorul Constanta or FCSB

74%

Draw or FCSB

60%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

19%

FCSB wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

75%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

40%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

16%

FCSB 1+ goals

72%

FCSB 2+ goals

36%

FCSB 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

54%

FCSB (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

FCSB attack 1.51 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more

40%

level

26%

FCSB scores more

34%

Viitorul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff