FCSB 3–0 Viitorul Constanta: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viitorul Constanta

8/30/2020

Liga I · Round 2Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FCSB48%

×Draw26%

Viitorul Constanta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.03

FCSB

1.49

Viitorul Constanta

1.03

FCSB creates 45% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 59 away

1.84

creates per match

1.07

0.99

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FCSB

1.84

Viitorul Constanta

1.07

allows per match

FCSB

0.99

Viitorul Constanta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

74%

FCSB or Viitorul Constanta

74%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

52%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

24%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

77%

FCSB 2+ goals

44%

FCSB 3+ goals

19%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

64%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

28%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

65%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FCSB scores more

48%

level

26%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

26%

FCSB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff