Viitorul Constanta 4–1 AFC Hermannstadt

Viitorul Constanta

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

6/22/2020

Liga I · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta51%

×Draw25%

AFC Hermannstadt23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.96

Viitorul Constanta

1.56

AFC Hermannstadt

0.96

Viitorul Constanta creates 63% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 138 away

1.70

creates per match

0.90

1.02

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.70

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.02

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw

77%

Viitorul Constanta or AFC Hermannstadt

75%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

49%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

27%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

79%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

46%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

21%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

62%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

25%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

69%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more

51%

level

25%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

23%

Viitorul Constanta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff