Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Hermannstadt vs Viitorul Constanta — Liga I 2018

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
7/29/2020Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 12Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt38%
×Draw29%
Viitorul Constanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.17
Viitorul Constanta
1.06

AFC Hermannstadt creates 10% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 59 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
Viitorul Constanta
1.07

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
Viitorul Constanta
1.14

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Viitorul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
67%
AFC Hermannstadt or Viitorul Constanta
71%
Draw or Viitorul Constanta
62%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
16%
Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
69%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
33%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
11%
Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
65%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
29%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
54%
Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
38%
level
29%
Viitorul Constanta scores more
33%

AFC Hermannstadt at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Hermannstadt vs Viitorul Constanta

AFC Hermannstadt beat Viitorul Constanta 2-0 in Liga I on July 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.