Viimsi 0–1 Kuressaare: Result & Stats | Cup

Viimsi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kuressaare

M. Pajunurm 65'

6/12/2024

Cup · 64th FinalsViimsi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Viimsi16%

×Draw14%

Kuressaare70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViimsiExpected goals in this matchKuressaare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

3.45

Viimsi

1.65

Kuressaare

3.45

Kuressaare creates 109% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.40

creates per match

5.00

1.90

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Viimsi

2.40

Kuressaare

5.00

allows per match

Viimsi

1.90

Kuressaare

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par

Kuressaare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Kuressaare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw

30%

Viimsi or Kuressaare

86%

Draw or Kuressaare

84%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+

7%

Kuressaare wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals

81%

Viimsi 2+ goals

49%

Viimsi 3+ goals

23%

Kuressaare 1+ goals

97%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

85%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)

18%

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Kuressaare away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 2.40 + Kuressaare defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kuressaare attack 5.00 + Viimsi defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Viimsi scores more

16%

level

14%

Kuressaare scores more

70%

Kuressaare at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kuressaare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Pajunurm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff