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Kuressaare vs Viimsi — Cup 2026

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viimsi
Viimsi
M. Allast 47'
7/8/2022CupCup · 64th FinalsKuressaare linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kuressaare76%
×Draw13%
Viimsi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare
3.43
Viimsi
1.31

Kuressaare creates 162% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kuressaare
5.00
Viimsi
1.43

allows per match

Kuressaare
1.20
Viimsi
1.86

finishing

Kuressaare+0.00on par
Viimsi+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare ↓

Viimsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Kuressaare or draw
89%
Kuressaare or Viimsi
87%
Draw or Viimsi
24%

Winning margin

Kuressaare wins by 2+
58%
Viimsi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kuressaare 1+ goals
97%
Kuressaare 2+ goals
85%
Kuressaare 3+ goals
64%
Viimsi 1+ goals
73%
Viimsi 2+ goals
38%
Viimsi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare (draw refunded)
87%
Viimsi (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Viimsi away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare attack 5.00 + Viimsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.43

Viimsi attack 1.43 + Kuressaare defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kuressaare scores more
76%
level
13%
Viimsi scores more
11%

Kuressaare at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kuressaare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
M. Allast

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kuressaare 1–0 Viimsi

Kuressaare beat Viimsi 1-0 in Cup on July 8, 2022.

Goals: M. Allast (47').

The match was played at Kuressaare linnastaadion in Kuressaare.