Vihren 3–1 Sportist Svoge: Result & Stats

Vihren

FT

3 – 1

Sportist Svoge

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vihren60%

×Draw22%

Sportist Svoge18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VihrenExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Vihren

1.92

Sportist Svoge

0.94

Vihren creates 104% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vihren

2.33

Sportist Svoge

0.88

allows per match

Vihren

1.00

Sportist Svoge

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vihren or draw

82%

Vihren or Sportist Svoge

78%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

40%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+

36%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals

85%

Vihren 2+ goals

57%

Vihren 3+ goals

30%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

61%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

24%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)

77%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.33 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sportist Svoge attack 0.88 + Vihren defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vihren scores more

60%

level

22%

Sportist Svoge scores more

18%

Vihren at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vihren

Sportist

Manager: Borislav Kyosev

Manager: Ivaylo Vasilev