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Sportist Svoge vs Vihren — Third League - Southwest 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
CANC
00:00
Vihren
Vihren
5/9/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sportist Svoge37%
×Draw25%
Vihren38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.39
Vihren
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 114 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.50
Vihren
1.48

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.31
Vihren
1.27

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Vihren+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Vihren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
62%
Sportist Svoge or Vihren
75%
Draw or Vihren
63%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
17%
Vihren wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
75%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
40%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
16%
Vihren 1+ goals
75%
Vihren 2+ goals
41%
Vihren 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
50%
Vihren (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Vihren away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.50 + Vihren defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vihren attack 1.48 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
37%
level
25%
Vihren scores more
38%

Vihren at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sportist Svoge host Vihren

May 9, 2020: Sportist Svoge take on Vihren in Third League - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.