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Vihren vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
11/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Mikrevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Vihren56%
×Draw23%
Slivnishki geroy21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.77
Slivnishki geroy
0.99

Vihren creates 79% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 130 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
79%
Vihren or Slivnishki geroy
77%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
44%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
31%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
83%
Vihren 2+ goals
53%
Vihren 3+ goals
26%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
63%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
26%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
73%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vihren scores more
56%
level
23%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
21%

Vihren at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vihren 0–0 Slivnishki geroy

Vihren and Slivnishki geroy drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mikrevo in Mikrevo.