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Slivnishki geroy vs Vihren — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihren
Vihren
6/1/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 37Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Slivnishki geroy41%
×Draw26%
Vihren34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.44
Vihren
1.29

Slivnishki geroy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 114 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Vihren
1.48

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Vihren
1.27

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Vihren+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Vihren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
66%
Slivnishki geroy or Vihren
74%
Draw or Vihren
59%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
19%
Vihren wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
76%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
42%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
18%
Vihren 1+ goals
72%
Vihren 2+ goals
37%
Vihren 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
55%
Vihren (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Vihren away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Vihren defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vihren attack 1.48 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
41%
level
26%
Vihren scores more
34%

Slivnishki geroy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slivnishki geroy 1–0 Vihren

Slivnishki geroy beat Vihren 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.