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Vihren vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
2 – 0
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
5/3/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 32Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Vihren47%
×Draw24%
Kyustendil29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.67
Kyustendil
1.26

Vihren creates 33% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 114 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
71%
Vihren or Kyustendil
76%
Draw or Kyustendil
53%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
25%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
81%
Vihren 2+ goals
50%
Vihren 3+ goals
23%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
72%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
36%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
62%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vihren scores more
47%
level
24%
Kyustendil scores more
29%

Vihren at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihren vs Kyustendil

Vihren beat Kyustendil 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.